Blog
Intelligence in Armed Conflict: Identifying Threats Before They Escalate
February 4, 2025
By Naomi Gordon

In recent years, armed conflict and wars have risen to alarming levels. According to the Peace Research Institute Oslo (PRIO), the past three years were the most violent in the last three decades, with 59 conflicts recorded in 2023 alone.
At times like these, it has never been more crucial for intelligence agencies to adapt to these challenges and evolving threats, working diligently to build a safer world.
The Crucial Role of Intelligence in the Rise of Armed Conflict
Various challenges within the intelligence domain can cause crucial, available information to be misinterpreted, underestimated, or ignored, leading to severe consequences. Missed signals, such as rising tensions, increased aggression, and military movements, highlight how even the most sophisticated intelligence systems can falter.
Such oversights can delay critical decision-making, allowing situations to escalate unchecked and increasing the risk of armed conflict.
The Three-Layer Approach to Intelligence

Data Collection and Analysis:
Data collection is the foundation for informed decision-making and strategic action. As technology evolves, it becomes increasingly critical for intelligence agencies to gather data from multiple sources to understand the complete intelligence picture. This includes utilizing various methods across the main intelligence verticals: Geo-Data Intelligence, OSINT-Data Intelligence, Proximity-Data Intelligence, and data fusion powered capabilities.
Furthermore, it is essential to employ a range of collection approaches, from focused efforts on specific targets to mass data collection. Agencies must also balance active collection methods with passive monitoring, continuously remaining alert to critical indicators that trigger action.
Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning:
AI and ML have transformed how information is processed and analyzed, enabling faster, more accurate, and comprehensive insights. These capabilities enhance pattern recognition and uncover correlations that might be overlooked through traditional methods.
Incorporating such tools also improves predictive modeling, allowing intelligence agencies to anticipate potential threats based on historical data and real-time input.
The Human Factor:
Despite the essential role of intelligence collection and analysis tools, we cannot rely on technology alone. Human intelligence and understanding remain irreplaceable and are critical in uncovering threats. People have the unique ability to understand behaviors, motivations, and intentions, as well as to grasp broader contextual circumstances that, AI for instance, may miss.
Furthermore, people offer the flexibility to adapt to unpredictable circumstances and the ethical considerations necessary for responsible decision-making. This human element ensures a balanced approach, complementing technological capabilities with insight, judgment, and moral reasoning.
Our aim is to adopt this proactive, integrated approach, leveraging every aspect of the intelligence cycle to create a comprehensive framework that identifies and mitigates threats before they escalate into armed conflict.
Together, let’s work toward building a safer world where conflicts are addressed before they ignite, and wars are prevented before they begin.
We’re here to answer your questions and provide you with the information you need! Contact us at info@rayzoneg.com and let us know how we can help.
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